Drivers, one of the most important assets for a team to attain success in F1. A team can have state of the art facilities, great financial resources, a very talented bunch of engineers and mechanics who can build a race winning and probably a championship winning car; but all this comes to naught if the man behind the wheel cannot bring home the desired results. Sometimes a car is only as good as its driver and we have seen instances in the past when good drivers drove mediocre cars and produced decent results.
This year, the Driver Markets Scenario can be termed the silliest of them all. There are various theories circulating in the paddock and barring 2 teams, each team has at least one seat on offer for the 2019 season.Ā
I shall make a conscious attempt of exploring the possibilities of driver lineups for 2019 based on all the information that I could glean off team insiders, reporters and friends from the F1 paddock, but first those who have locked down their drives for 2019.
Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team :
MercedesĀ is in a fierce contest with FerrariĀ for supremacy this year. Their focus is solely on retaining both theĀ Drivers' and Constructors' Titles; so its no surprise that they announced their driver lineup with no changes fairly early in the season. Drama due to media speculations can become a big distraction for a team in a highly stressful environment so kudos to them for steering clear.Ā Valtteri BottasĀ will partnerĀ Lewis HamiltonĀ for 2019 with an option to extend for another year for the Finn.
Renault Sport F1 Team :
Nico HulkenbergĀ is on a long term contract withĀ RenaultĀ but the team fromĀ OxfordshireĀ acquired one of the hottest properties of 2019 -Ā Daniel Ricciardo!Ā His acquisition left the entireĀ F1 Community in shock and awe. What triggered this decision? Will it prove to be a masterstroke or a debacle? Lets try to answer these questions.
What triggered this decision?
Daniel RicciardoĀ is a successful product of theĀ Red Bull Driver ProgramĀ and enjoyed a fair amount of success with the A team since 2014. However he is yet to win a Championship with them and with the arrival of a much youngerĀ Max VerstappenĀ ( almost all believe he will be a World Champion eventually ) maintaining parity is becoming a challenge. The Biggest Factor that has triggered this decision though is thatĀ Red BullĀ switches toĀ HondaĀ power for 2019.Ā Honda'sĀ return toĀ F1Ā is a fiasco. The situation hasn't changed much in 2018 andĀ Toro RossoĀ has suffered their fair share of retirements. WillĀ Red BullĀ be a force to reckon with in 2019? Aerodynamically yes, in power hungry circuits, an emphatic no. I would be surprised if they even manage to be on the podium regularly. MercedesĀ shut the door andĀ FerrariĀ refused to offerĀ DanielĀ a drive. Only one Works Team remained. A team with the resources to return to the top end of the grid, win races and even challenge for Championships - Renault F1.Ā
Will it prove to be a masterstroke or a debacle?
Red BullĀ are 3rd in the Constructors' at the summer break, 141 points ahead ofĀ Renault.Ā RenaultĀ is yet to score a podium since their return to being a full works team whileĀ Red BullĀ notched up 3 victories this year. Statistically its a howler of a decision; for many it is like going from a front running team to a mid table team. However 2019 and 2020 will give us a very different story.
Let us look at 2 recent examples of such decisions :Ā Lewis Hamilton's switch to MercedesĀ in 2013 andĀ Fernando Alonso'sĀ switch toĀ McLaren Honda in 2015.Ā
MercedesĀ were nowhere near the front in 2012 or 2013.Ā McLarenĀ was one of the cars that could challenge the dominance ofĀ Red Bull but come 2014, the advent of the 1.6 V6 Turbo era and theĀ Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 TeamĀ were untouchable. They have won 4 titles on the trot whileĀ McLarenĀ have slipped back into oblivion.Ā Lewis'Ā decision to switch at the end of 2012 was viewed as a disaster by some, the results thereafter suggest a totally different story.
AlonsoĀ tried to win a title atĀ FerrariĀ for 5 years. It was not to be. He chose to return toĀ McLarenĀ in 2015 with the hope of returning to the top step of the podium and rolling back the years to the golden era ofĀ Senna and ProstĀ ( who ran Honda Powered engines ). The result is a disaster.Ā HondaĀ struggled to find their feet and the alliance was terminated at the end of 2017.Ā Fernando AlonsoĀ has not been on the podium for 4 years. The biggest difference between the 2 decisions is thatĀ Mercedes was a full works team ( chassis + powertrain ) whileĀ McLarenĀ are only chassis designers. A good chassis working in tandem with a reliable and quick powertrain can win you races, titles. Hence in the case ofĀ Lewis, it was a masterstroke and in the case ofĀ Alonso,Ā a debacle.
RenaultĀ build both and are expanding their personnel and R&D facilities with every passing week. They are not there yet but have taken giant steps in that direction. Their results in comparison to last year's speak volumes of the progress made. 2019 will see him as a regular on the podium. A win? Probably not...but come 2020,Ā RicciardoĀ will be in aĀ ChampionshipĀ winning car ( in my opinion ).
Now onto the teams that have a seat each on offer!
Scuderia Ferrari F1 Team :
Sebastian VettelĀ stays with the Prancing Horse for 2019 and that is no surprise. Its an excellent alliance and they should lift the title this year...a long wait but worth it.Ā Kimi Raikkonen'sĀ seat, like every year is the hot topic of discussion. Rumours thatĀ Charles LeclercĀ will replaceĀ Kimi RaikkonenĀ in-season gained a lot of traction. Some even claimed thatĀ KimiĀ would return toĀ SauberĀ and finish his career where he started it. This really is the most retarded theory out there. Another publication claimed that KimiĀ would return to McLarenĀ to replace the outgoing Alonso ( Another fictitious theory ).Ā Then the Iceman upped his game and silenced all critics. He finished on the podium 5 times in a row, the only one to do so in both the Triple and the Double Header. Suddenly news that he was being offered another contract extension started doing the rounds. Nothing is official yet and the 2nd seat atĀ FerrariĀ is still up for grabs.
Its no secret thatĀ Charles Leclerc, Scuderia Ferrari Academy DriverĀ is destined to occupy this seat. When rather than whether is the question. He has been a revelation inĀ Sauber,Ā comprehensively beating his more experienced team-mateĀ Marcus Ericsson.Ā Is he ready to step into the big league? I don't think so. He has the talent but rushing him into a top seat with only a one year experience in F1 might turn out to be a disaster. It would be better forĀ LeclercĀ to go to the stronger customer teamĀ Haas F1Ā for 2019 and then join the A Team in 2020.Ā KimiĀ is having his strongest year inĀ FerrariĀ since his return toĀ MaranelloĀ in 2014 and is the perfect team-mate toĀ Vettel.Ā They share a no-nonsense, friendly and transparent relationship; both push each other to their limits and when needed,Ā KimiĀ is a true team player. His experience in the sport cannot be matched. He definitely has another year of racing in him and as most experts agree, his recent performances and his current position ( 3rd ) in the Drivers' Championship has earned him the right to be aĀ RedĀ for another year.Ā
Ferrari,Ā likeĀ MercedesĀ must lock down their driver lineups soon to eliminate unnecessary media attention and the drama that comes with it. They are in the Driver's seat so their focus should be on winning the title rather than addressing issues for 2019.
I expectĀ Scuderia FerrariĀ to announce a contract extension forĀ Kimi Raikkonen inĀ Belgium. GO ICEMAN!!
Red Bull Racing F1 Team :
Red BullĀ will lose a star inĀ Daniel RicciardoĀ for 2019.Ā Christian Horner, Red Bull Team Principal,Ā thoughtĀ RicciardoĀ was joking when the latter expressed his desire to leave the team at the end of the season. Well a seat is vacant andĀ Red BullĀ are spoilt for choice for 2019.Ā Pierre Gasly, Carlos Sainz Jr, Fernando AlonsoĀ are all vying for this seat. ( Brendan Hartley,Ā formerĀ WEC ChampionĀ won't make the cut ( below par debut in F1 ) and hence not in the reckoning )Ā
Carlos Sainz Jr.Ā was loaned toĀ RenaultĀ for 2018 and considering the fact that he started his F1 career withĀ Max Verstappen,Ā he would be the logical choice to jump into the seat next year. AstonishinglyĀ Red BullĀ are not in a hurry and will bide their time to make their choice. It leavesĀ SainzĀ in a very unfortunate position. If he were to not be the chosen one, he could find himself out of the sport.Ā McLarenĀ seem one destination but that would mean going backwards on the grid. No disrespect toĀ McLarenĀ but they are a shadow of their former self.Ā SainzĀ is a talented driver and deserves to be on the sharp end of the grid.Ā SainzĀ has a sponsor inĀ Estrella GalaciaĀ and that can be a trump card.
Pierre GaslyĀ anotherĀ Red Bull ProtegeeĀ is having a strong year in F1. He is already working withĀ HondaĀ atĀ Toro RossoĀ so that is a bonus. His relative inexperience is a negative and having 2 young drivers can be a recipe for disaster.
Fernando Alonso,Ā the opportunist, a man who can move mountains in order to have a winning car under him. He is believer to be one of the contenders for the seat but will he team up withĀ HondaĀ again? Considering his rants in races in years thatĀ HondaĀ raced withĀ McLaren,Ā it doesn't seem thatĀ AlonsoĀ andĀ HondaĀ have an amicable relationship.Ā Red BullĀ is a team that practices parity between team-mates but shouldĀ AlonsoĀ join, will this practice continue? Politics come into play too and the atmosphere within the team might not stay healthy. In my opinion,Ā AlonsoĀ will stay put to head toĀ WECĀ next year.Ā
I really wish thatĀ Sainz Jr.Ā gets theĀ Red BullĀ drive in 2019 butĀ GaslyĀ seems the favourite according to experts. It might turn out to be a blessing in disguise forĀ Sainz Jr.Ā if he opts to goĀ Renault Powered McLarenĀ and it ends up beating aĀ Honda Powered Red Bull!
Time will tell...
Now onto those who have both seats up for grabs!
Sahara Force India F1 :
Force India F1Ā isn'tĀ Force IndiaĀ anymore but will have a new name after a consortium headed byĀ Mr. Lawrence StrollĀ got them out of administration today. Both seats are available for 2019 but afterĀ Lawrence Stroll,Ā Lance Stroll's fatherĀ acquired the team,Ā the Canadian will ply his trade there.Ā ( Official announcement pending ).Ā Esteban Ocon, MercedesĀ backed and part of their informal program should stay. Any speculation linking him withĀ RenaultĀ is now over andĀ MercedesĀ will ensure he stays at their strongest customer team. This meansĀ Sergio PerezĀ will be without a drive.Ā PerezĀ too has a sizeable sponsor in Telmex backing him and as per his recent admission, his future in F1 lies elsewhere.Ā McLarenĀ is the best option,Ā HaasĀ an alternate.Ā WilliamsĀ also might not be a bad choice if they are able to improve their performances.Ā Ā
Force IndiaĀ will retainĀ Ocon and Lance StrollĀ will be his team-mate for 2019 according to me.
Haas F1 Team :
Haas F1,Ā likeĀ Red BullĀ is spoilt for choice for 2019.Ā MagnussenĀ is having a great year andĀ GrosjeanĀ the complete opposite. The general consensus is thatĀ GrosjeanĀ is set to lose his drive.Ā Charles LeclercĀ is the ideal replacement.Ā FerrariĀ would want him there to assess him in a faster car and if he can better his performances,Ā Haas F1Ā will cherish this decision.Ā Magnussen,Ā also without a contract should end up renewing withĀ HaasĀ since the team will want an existing driver to help with the development for next year.Ā PerezĀ has an outside chance but its a very slim one.Ā
HaasĀ will fieldĀ Magnussen and LeclercĀ in 2019.
McLaren F1 Team :
McLaren'sĀ status inĀ F1Ā is now reduced to a mid-field runner. Its embarrassing to see a team with such a decorated past to be struggling with mercurial performances week in week out. The patience of theirĀ Spanish Matador Fernando AlonsoĀ is also running low. He is exploring the possibility of joiningĀ WECĀ next year ( someone close to the team confirmed the same ). Many predict a career in Indy but HondaĀ might be the roadblock in that endeavour. It would be a major setback for the team if he were to leave F1.Ā Stoffel VandoorneĀ has been a disappointment this year and his lacklustre performances leave his drive in jeopardy. He might be retained ifĀ Alonso leaves.Ā The options available are many for 2019 and the team must bide their time before zeroing in on their lineup.Ā Landon Norris,Ā a part of their driver program is performing well inĀ Formula 2Ā but it might be an year too early to rope him in into F1.Ā The team must do everything in its capacity to hold ontoĀ Fernando Alonso. Carlos Sainz JrĀ is one of the frontrunners for a race seat, a move that will be effected if he is left high and dry byĀ Red Bull,Ā albeit a second time.Ā Sainz JrĀ will be delighted to partner his hero in 2019. He also brings a sizeable sponsorship inĀ Estrella GalaciaĀ as mentioned earlier. However ifĀ SainzĀ does go toĀ Red Bull,Ā thenĀ Sergio PerezĀ is a good option. Financially, he has an equally strong backing. He drove for the team in 2013 but was ousted in a not-so-amicable way ( much likeĀ FernandoĀ at the end of 2007 ).Ā
Factoring in the current situation, its safe to say thatĀ McLarenĀ will end up having an allĀ SpanishĀ lineup withĀ Alonso and Sainz JrĀ in 2019.
Alfa-RomeoĀ Sauber F1 Team :
Sauber F1Ā are extremely pleased with the performances ofĀ LeclercĀ this year.Ā Marcus EricssonĀ like his previous year is nowhere in terms of performances. Astonishingly he retained his seat in 2018 and he might in 2019 as well!Ā LeclercĀ is bound forĀ HaasĀ according to me andĀ Antonio GiovinazziĀ (Ā Ferrari's Reserve DriverĀ ) is a regular feature in tests and practice sessions for the team this year. I believe he will make a return to the grid in 2019. I don't seeĀ SauberĀ going outside theĀ Scuderia Ferari AcademyĀ umbrella to hire a F1 Pilot.Ā Antonio FuocoĀ ( from Charouz Racing Team in F2 ) will have to wait another year, maybe he will be roped in as a reserve driver this year.
Marcus Ericsson and Antonio GiovinazziĀ is the lineup forĀ SauberĀ according to me.
Scuderia Toro Rosso F1 Team :
Toro RossoĀ is in a serious dilemma.Ā GaslyĀ ( according to many ) is set for theĀ Red Bull RacingĀ seat in 2019.Ā Brendan HartleyĀ was slated to be replaced but the Red Bull Driver Program has no one ready for the big jump into F1. The man closest to the seat isĀ Dan TicktumĀ who is plying his trade in Formula 3. The biggest hurdle will be that he will not gather enough superlicense points ( even if he wins the F3 championship ) to warrant a drive next year.Ā However the FIA reviews its points criteria every year and maybe they might have modifications made that will enable him to enter F1.Ā Hartley,Ā ifĀ GaslyĀ was to leave might just be retained for another year ( I am being a bit biased towards him here ). He is a great guy and a genuinely quick driver but for some reason is not able to find his feet in F1.Ā IfĀ TicktumĀ can't make the cut,Ā Toro RossoĀ will be compelled to see someone outside their program andĀ Perez, VandoorneĀ will be options.Ā PerezĀ should win this bout with the experience and the money he brings.Ā
Toro RossoĀ will haveĀ Perez and Hartley ( if Ticktum can't make the cut ) in 2019.Ā ( Bold prediction ).
Williams Martini Racing F1 Team :
WilliamsĀ is last in the Championship and with the latest news ofĀ Lawrence StrollĀ buying outĀ Force India,Ā they have lost a sizeable amount of finances for 2019.Ā Sergei Sirotkin,Ā the debutant this year will retain his drive in all probability ( taking into account the money he brings into the team ).Ā George Russell,Ā the F2 Championship leader andĀ MercedesĀ ProtegeĀ should get a drive withĀ Williams.Ā He is set to win theĀ F2 ChampionshipĀ this year andĀ WilliamsĀ will be a suitable fit to assess his abilities in the big league.Ā
Sirotkin and RussellĀ look certain forĀ WilliamsĀ next year.
So to sum it all up :
Mercedes :Ā Hamilton & Bottas ( Confirmed )
Renault F1 :Ā Ricciardo & Hulkenberg ( Confirmed )
Scuderia Ferrari F1 : Vettel ( Confirmed ) & Raikkonen ( Predicted )
Red Bull Racing : Verstappen ( Confirmed ) & Gasly ( Predicted )
Force India : Stroll & Ocon ( Predicted )
Haas F1 : Magnussen & Leclerc ( Predicted )
McLaren : Alonso & Sainz Jr ( Predicted ).Ā Ā If Alonso leaves, Vandoorne will be retained.
Sauber F1 : Ericsson & Giovinazzi ( Predicted )
Toro Rosso F1 : Hartley & Perez ( Predicted )Ā Ā
Frankly, its a bold prediction and I might be well off the mark so apologies in advance!Ā
Williams F1 : Sirotkin & Russell ( Predicted )
SoĀ Grosjean and VandoorneĀ ( if Alonso stays and that is a BIG IF ) might not feature in 2019. I would be gutted if VandoorneĀ doesn't make the cut. He still has time to turn it around and I am hoping that I am proven wrong in my prediction!
These are my predictions ( my views based on my assessment ) taking into consideration the information collected in the last few weeks. I might be completely wrong when the lineups are confirmed officially by the teams. This year it really is as unpredictable as it can get.
